The Iowa Republican caucuses will be January 3rd. It'll be the first "official" step in the 2012 national election. Ooh, ah! The national media are swarming in Iowa, breathlessly reporting the latest polls and surveys. They'd have us believe this caucus is something, like, significant.
It's not. And the soon-to-follow New Hampshire primary won't be, either. A couple of small-population states yielding non-representative results (especially that weird caucus thing). Maybe they "pick a winner", maybe they don't. One way or the other, it's not particularly predictive.
It reminds me of my years playing fantasy baseball and the annual drafting of players. That experience taught me to (1.) not get too excited about the reigning champion (although many analysts will pick the World Series winner to do it again), and (2.) try to ignore spring training (despite all the media hype about the pre-season exploits of the latest, greatest phenom). The previous winner has no guarantee of repeating, and six weeks of exhibition play is not like six months of the real thing.
In this election analogy, the incumbent, Barack Obama, is the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Republican primaries are spring training.
One important difference is this: To repeat as World Series champs, the Cards must beat the 14 other National League teams, then beat the American League winner. To be reelected President, all Obama has to do is defeat a single Republican Rightard. Probably Romney.
Can do? Can do!
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