Welcome to Buster's Blog

Irregular commentary on whatever's on my mind -- politics, sports, current events, and life in general. After twenty years of writing business and community newsletters, fifteen years of fantasy baseball newsletters, and two years of email "columns", this is, I suppose, the inevitable result: the awful conceit that someone might actually care to read what I have to say. Posts may be added often, rarely, or never again. As always, my mood and motivation are unpredictable.

Buster Gammons















Thursday, March 25, 2010

Polls are GIGO


Opinion polls are like buttholes -- everybody's got one, but I don't want to see yours. These days, it seems that opinion polling is virtually constant, updated minute by minute on every conceivable issue. With every new hot-topic-of-the-moment poll, any real statistical validity becomes less and less likely. You can design a poll to give you any result you desire. Some polls ask stupid questions. Others seek out stupid people. Then there's the double whammy, the poll which is determined to ask stupid questions of stupid people. The results are meaningless. It's Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Lately, there have been opinion polls telling us that the "majority" is "opposed" to health care reform. This bit of truthiness has been widely reported. Less widely reported is the fact that the vast majority of those opposed admit they have no idea what's contained in the legislation. Furthermore, an equally large majority are actually in favor of the various components of the plan once they learn more about it. So is the majority really opposed to health care reform? No, the majority are uninformed reactionary cranks too fuckin' dumb to know what's good for 'em!

Buster reminds you that public opinion polls are only as good as their design, and often that design sucks. Pollsters had Dewey defeating Truman, and they've been wrong many times since. Two suggestions for all of us:

1. Ignore most opinion polls. People say all sorts of goofy shit.
2. Never underestimate the stupidity of your fellow Americans.

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