Major League Math

When it comes to hidebound dogma, it's hard to top the jock-ocracy of professional sports management. Right now, a great baseball example of this stubborn adherence to the accepted wisdom is pitcher Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals and the decision by Nats' GM Mike Rizzo to keep Strasburg on a strict "innings-pitched" limit.

Strasburg is a recent #1 overall draft pick and a great young power pitcher. He throws serious gas. He also missed all of 2011 with Tommy John elbow surgery. The Washington brain trust decreed an iron-clad limit of 160 innings pitched for Strasburg this season.

And what a season it's been for the Nationals, who right now have the best record in all of baseball and will almost certainly win the NL East. Strasburg has been an important part of it, picking up 15 wins while pitching like a stud. He's logged 145 innings to this point, and Rizzo remains adamant that, no matter what, Strasburg will be shut down after two or three more starts. For his own long-term good, and that of the team. Which is understandable, except . . .

You're really gonna bench your best pitcher for the post-season? Rizzo, dude, are you serious? Don't you think you oughta dance with the one what brung ya? You wouldn't be here without Strasburg. You believe you're gonna go far without him?

Which brings me, at last, to the point of the title of this post. If you're really going to limit a pitcher's work over a season, an innings-pitched limit is fuzzy and unreliable math. That's because not all innings are created equal. A perfectly efficient inning from a pitcher is just three pitches. On the other hand, a struggling pitcher may get cuffed around and labor through 50 pitches in an inning.

A better measure is pitches thrown -- basic pitch count, which most teams use to limit certain starting pitchers on a single-game basis. But even that can be deceptive. There's a Stephen Strasburg/Aroldis Chapman pitch, and there's an R.A. Dickey/Jamie Moyer pitch.

OK, Strasburg throws hard as hell and puts a lot of torque on his arm. But shouldn't someone ask him how he feels about his own arm? That's probably the best measure of all. If he says he can go, you gotta let him go.

And besides, I really want to watch him pitch in the playoffs!