The Gold Standard Is Silver

It's that time in the political season when we all suffer from constant polls, every day, from way too many pollsters, some with obvious agendas, some less obvious, all clamoring for media attention and its attendant "respect."  This one says that, some other one says another thing, up, down, widening, narrowing, this group, that segment, sampling error, registered voters, likely voters, last Tuesday in a donut shop in Altoona, ad nauseum.

It's all too much.  Too much contradiction, not enough predictability.  The mass proliferation of  polling has defeated the very purpose of polling.  We don't know who to trust anymore.

In such an environment of over-polling, I tend to go with the gold standard, which is Silver.  Nate Silver, that is, and his FiveThirtyEight Blog (always available in Buster's Links).

There's no doubt the presidential race is tightening.  It always does right about now, because . . . 'Murica!  But Nate Silver and his team are stats wonks.  They began in 2008, and they've been uncanny so far.  538.com projected correct outcomes in 2008, including every Senate race, and again in 2012, calling the presidential race correctly in each of the 50 states.

They run 20 different simulations every day in every state.  In terms of chances of victory, they currently have the presidential race like so:

Hillary Clinton 60.3% chance of winning, Donald Trump 39.7%.

It's getting closer, but don't panic . . . yet.

Make Russia Great Again

"Russia, if you're listening . . ."

Of course, Donald Trump has infamously encouraged foreign governments to spy on us and hack his opponent and our IT systems at the highest levels. "I think you'll be mightily rewarded by our press."

Not that they need any prodding, but they're listening, Donald, they're listening.

Since the Great Trumpkin's intemperate, treasonous-ish remarks, Guccifer and other Russian-sourced hackers have stepped up their game, leaking info stolen from the DNC, Colin Powell, Simone Biles, and Venus and Serena Williams.

In a personal email, Powell called Trump "a national disgrace."  Strong words, and perfectly true.  But lots of people have said that and are still saying it, your humble correspondent included.

I'm much more concerned about Trump's bro-mance with Putin, and what that implies.  Trump says it's a mutual admiration society, but Putin is a despot, a strongman, and a servant of his oligarchs.  Trump owes much more money to those Russian "lenders" than he's willing to admit.  And despite the man-crush, Putin is smart enough to recognize a fish on the line.

Trump is that fish.  (He certainly has the lips.)

The Prophetic Garry Trudeau

Here's a Doonesbury cartoon by Garry Trudeau from 1999.  Pretty much spot-on, I'd say.

Her Soul Will Go On

Baby, You're So Vicious!

The Great Trumpkin's campaign wasted no time in hitting back on "the basket of deplorables."  They just released an ad bemoaning Hillary's "vicious" attacks on Trump's deplorable supporters.  "She's attacking you, and you, and you!"  (a.k.a. you racists, you xenophobes, you in the He-Man Women-Haters Club, etc.)

In his limited vocabulary, "vicious" is one of Trump's favorite words.  He uses it all the time.  But Hillary was not vicious.  She was honest.  She was true.  And you know it.

If anyone's vicious, it's The Donald, that infamous mental patient who hates Mexicans and Muslims and loves war and nukes and wants to bomb the shit out of anyone who disagrees.

So, Buster proposes a new theme song for the Clinton campaign, talkin' 'bout The Donald, played as a soundtrack accompanying a loop of some of Trump's many bigoted public remarks (take your pick):

Will Anyone Point Out His Constant, Obvious Lies?

Had a nice online exchange last night with some new readers from California.  Like so many of us, they're gob-smacked by the way mainstream media has given Donald Trump a false equivalency he simply does not deserve.

Example 1:  Hillary Clinton's "walking pneumonia" is no way a "health crisis," that stupid phrase bandied about by too many supposedly serious news outlets.  Stage 4 cancer is a health crisis.  Hilz has herself a cough and a case of the crud.  Stop it!

Example 2:  Speaking today in Iowa, Donald Trump declared that Hillary is "running a policy-free campaign."  I watched his comments on CBS, where no one said a word about this humongous lie!

CBS, puh-leeze!   Hillary Clinton has released a policy book, for cryin' out loud!  She outlines her positions on 38 topics, over 256 pages.  You friggin' didn't know this?

Trump's "policies," on the other hand, cover 6 or 7 brief thoughts, double-spaced on a single page, with the sort of generous margins found in junior high term papers.  Topics include "How to lose trillions of dollars on tax cuts for those who don't need them," and of course "Paying for the wall."

 

Sick? You're Fired!

Franklin Roosevelt had polio and needed a wheelchair.  Ronald Reagan had early-stage Alzheimers.  George H.W. Bush puked into the lap of the Japanese prime minister.  But Hillary is apparently not allowed to cough or even sniffle.

Chase MitchellVerified account‏@ChaseMit

This is the first time Republicans have cared about a woman's health.

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1:32 PM - 11 Sep 2016

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Patton OswaltVerified account‏@pattonoswalt

Wait, so Hillary has PNEUMONIA and she's still campaigning as hard as she is? You realize how badass that is, right?

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4:07 PM - 11 Sep 2016

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maura quintVerified account‏@behindyourback

At the very least, I'm far less concerned about Hillary Clinton's physical ailments than I am about Donald Trump's mental ones.

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3:26 PM - 11 Sep 2016Reply

And